The new study, led by the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, and published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, is the first to explore the health impacts of meeting future child poverty targets, and shows that reducing child poverty would substantially improve child health and reduce health inequalities overall.

To carry out the study, researchers modelled the outcomes of three hypothetical future child poverty reduction targets for England between 2024 and 2033. The targets were set as low-ambition (15% reduction), medium-ambition (25% reduction) and high-ambition (35% reduction), and were compared with a baseline child poverty scenario (predicted to be a 15% increase). Using local authority data, the researchers were able to determine that any child poverty reduction target, if met, would improve child health, particularly for those in the most deprived groups.

The modelling showed that meeting the high-ambition reduction target would positively impact a number of key child health markers, including infant mortality. Overall, achieving a reduction of 35% on 2023 child poverty levels by 2033, would result in avoiding a total of 293 infant deaths, 4696 children entering care, 458 childhood admissions with nutritional anaemias and 32,650 childhood emergency admissions.

Northern regions of England were predicted to see the greatest benefit from child poverty reduction, with infant mortality falling the most in areas of highest deprivation (by 126 in the most deprived areas compared with 71 in the least deprived areas).

The researchers say these reductions in child health statistics would likely translate into significant savings for, and relieve pressure on, local authorities and health services.

Professor Vittal Katikireddi, senior author of the paper, said: “These findings show that addressing child poverty can have large and immediate health benefits, helping reduce the health inequalities between regions of England. The costs of policies to reduce child poverty, such as abolishing the two-child benefit cap, should be considered alongside the potential savings that can be realised by the NHS and local authorities.”

The study, Implications of child poverty reduction targets for public health and health inequalities in England: a modelling study between 2024 and 2033, is published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.

First published: 7 August 2024

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