Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is a type of irregular heartbeat found in roughly four percent of UK adults, and those with the condition are five times more likely to suffer from a stroke than the general population. Luckily, anticoagulants, drugs that prevent blood clots, can be prescribed to reduce this risk. However, many adults in the UK are living undiagnosed, and therefore do not realise they are at risk. Mass screening, or testing, of the public at large is not currently recommended because it would be extremely expensive to roll out, and there’s just not enough evidence to support the effectiveness of a scheme of that size.

ASPIRE: Preventing strokes through better atrial fibrillation screening, is a University of Glasgow-led study that aims to address this issue by developing an AF risk score that can help identify and screen those most at risk of having this condition. The team will start by creating a prognostic model to predict AF risk in the general population, before modelling the potential cost-effectiveness of using the prognostic model as part of a screening programme delivering in primary care.

The Stroke Association logo is next to two heart balloons. In the background, the Clarice Pears building can be seen.

HEHTA Research Fellow Dr Robert Heggie is an experienced researcher in the field of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and cardiovascular health and is a co-investigator on ASPIRE. Robert has been contributing to the project by using his expertise in decision-analytic modelling to assess the cost-effectiveness of the prognostic model.

The two-year project, funded by the Stroke Association, started in 2023 and is set to conclude this coming July in 2025. If the project is successful and ASPIRE’s AF risk score is said to be effective, the team will push for its wider use in the UK and beyond, helping more people get screened and treated early, ultimately preventing strokes and their life-changing impacts.

Read more about the project on Stroke Association’s website: https://www.stroke.org.uk/research/aspire-study-atrial-fibrillation

First published: 14 February 2025

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