School of Social & Political Sciences

Trump's withdrawal of the US from its traditional leadership role and the rise of a more multipolar world creates opportunities as well as challenges for Britain's governing elites

The United Kingdom is attached to a hegemon in decline and must consider decoupling from it to stave off further economic decline and maintain relevance in an increasingly multipolar world. The UK depends upon the US for economic and military security. However, the US has proven to be an unreliable partner. As the second Trump presidency shows, the attitude of the US towards the UK is liable to fluctuate depending on who occupies the White House. At the same time, shifts in geopolitics and the emergence of new economic powers present opportunities for the UK. Just as the US declines as a hegemonic force, reports demonstrate that the UK is in a state of dire economic decline. Could decoupling from its powerful ally enable the pursuit of British assertion as middle power in the age of rising multipolarity?

The UK is deeply financially dependent on the US. This creates vulnerabilities for the British economy which is deeply integrated with the US economy and therefore reliant on the stability and policies of the US. Following Brexit and the exit of the UK from the EU's single market, the UK has negotiated numerous free trade agreements (FTAs) with various nations, however, most of these are simply continuity agreements to maintain status quo in trade relations, while a hoped-for trade deal with Washington has been hindered by an increasingly protectionist mood in the US. Accounting for 17.6% of total UK trade in year preceding Q2 of 2024, the US is by far the UK's largest and most important trading partner. Larry Elliott notes that the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) think tank has warned that the tariffs threatened by Donald Trump would weaken British economic activity and cause a rise in inflation and interest rates from the Bank of England. The 10% blanket tariff proposed by Donald Trump on all goods entering the US would result in 0.7% and 0.5% lower growth for the UK economy in the first two years following implementation according to NIESR estimates. Elliott argues that the poorest households in Britain would be expected to bear the brunt of any economic shocks as wages continue to fail to keep up with rising prices, resulting in a fall of living standards. 

Adam Tooze argues that the UK has sharply diverged from its historical growth trajectory. The UK's decline is no longer simply relative and down to its economy converging with other developing nations but is going through de-convergence, falling behind and underperforming in many key economic metrics. Tomlinson notes that comparisons with major European economies and Britain's failure to keep abreast with accelerating European growth have long been hallmarks of the declinist position. Tooze understands this and compares the UK economy to France and Germany's, highlighting the UK's much lower average household income and rates of investment. With the US proving to be an increasingly unreliable trading partner, and with President Trump's drive to raise tariffs, the 'special relationship' appears to serve the economic interests of the UK less and less. This raises the question as to whether the UK should explore alternative avenues when attempting to improve its economic and geopolitical position.

The approaching and seemingly unstoppable rise of a multipolar world order pushed for by emerging powers such as China threatens US domination of global affairs and the power of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Decoupling from the US would present the UK with an opportunity to present itself as an independent actor on the global stage. At the recent BRICS+ summit in Russia, 32 countries attended despite western efforts to isolate Russia, including sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With membership of the bloc expanding to include 5 more members, while many more are considering membership, the China-led coalition seems to capitalise on a "growing global dissatisifcation with and a determination to challenge the structural advantages that advanced market democracies continue to enjoy in a global order that was in many respects made by the West, for the West."

Thomas Fazi notes the irony in that the sanctions regime imposed by the US has led to a weakening of dollar-domination of global financial structures as many states are seeking alternatives to Western-designed systems and push for pre-dollarisation in order to protect their own assets from US sanctions. The New Development Bank (NDB) founded by BRICS has promised to be rapid in its response to member's proposals and has opened regional offices around the world, laying the foundations for a credible development bank which seeks to further challenge US hegemony and give emerging and developing members an equal voice. 

The response of President Trump to de-dollarisation efforts have been to threaten countries that adandon the dollar with 100% tariffs. This indicates that there is little appetite from the incoming administration to adopt a more cooperative stance when engaging in international trade negotiations with nations that refuse to adhere to the rules set by the US with regards to how states conduct their own trade. Patrick notes that the world appears to be fragmenting into competing blocs, with geopolitical rivalry between East and South compounded by mutual alienation between North and South. By aligning itself so closely with the US, the UK alienates itself from much of the Global South who are increasingly at odds with the US. Decoupling from Washington and setting an independent foreign policy would allow the UK to serve as a balancing force, maintaining ties with BRICS, the US and the EU. In the approaching multipolar world, Britain can act as bridge between BRICS and the West while reducing its vulnerability to geopolitical shocks stemming from US conflicts and policies.

Reliance on the US for matters of security has led to a crisis regarding Britain's military position as the priorities of the US continue to diverge from that of Europe, causing a contradiction within the NATO alliance. The UK, along with France and Germany have expended great resources to provide aid for Ukraine in its defence against Russian invasion, with the UK providing the third greatest amount of aid after the US and EU. France and Germany have recently announced greater cooperation in the production of a new line of tanks and Emmanual Macron has reaffirmed both nations' determination "to support Ukraine as long as it takes and as intensively as needed".

President Trump has been a vocal critic of NATO and has deemed the Ukraine war was a drain on US resources, voicing his support for a negotiated peace which would leave Ukraine in a much more vulnerable state than what Ukraine or the EU would desire. Trump views geopolitical rivalry with China as a far greater priority and has vowed to continue military support for an independently governed Taiwan. The US drew Australia and the UK into the trilateral AUKUS pact in 2021 in a bid to counter China and develop nuclear-powered submarines, the pact angered France who lost a contract with Australia to build 12 new submarines. China does not border Europe and has not invaded another country since 1979. China is also the UK's fifth largest trading partner. It therefore makes little sense for the UK to partake in US-led brinkmanship with a nuclear power. The UK could reorient its foreign policy to become more independent from the US and work closely with its European neighbours, who as a bloc form the UK's largest trading partner. Reorientation would allow the UK to strengthen European defensive partnerships and allow a realignment of trade focusing on emerging economies which are increasingly part of BRICS, as opposed to treating these countries with hostility at the behest of the US. 

Francis Fukuyama, writing shortly after the disastrous US withdrawl from Afghanistan, argued that the world has been reverting to a state of multipolarity since the 2008 financial crisis and that increasing polarisation within the US has impacted US foreign policy. Fukuyama advises the US to avoid illusions of regaining its earlier hegemonic status but to instead sustain "a world order friendly to democratic values", by working with allies and deploying greater resources to deter geopolitical rivals. With Trump set to increasingly push the US into greater isolation through the introduction of protectionist economic policies, abandoning the US's commitment to its partners in Europe, and refusing to cooperate with nations looking to abandon the dollar, there is little sign that Fukuyama's warning will be heeded. The Biden administration kept most of Trump's previous tariffs imposed against China, signalling that regardless of who is in the White House, the agenda of the US remains the same. 

Britain's financial and strategic reliance on the US is now a liability for a nation looking to assert itself among a rapidly changing global order. Protectionist policies pursued by the US risk trade disruption and could negatively impact the projected growth of the UK economy. The rise of the multipolar world, led by BRICS, presents the UK with an opportunity to pursue an independent and balanced foreign policy. Decoupling would not entail the abandonment of existing Western alliances but would allow the UK to engage with its traditional allies and emerging economies in the Global South. By lessening reliance on Washington, the UK would be able to work as a mediator between the US and BRICS, while pursuing closer ties with Europe in the wake of Brexit could shore up continental security concerns and boost economic activity between the UK and the EU. 

 

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This blog is part of the SPS Student Academic Blog Series. You can read more contributions from the series here. 

First published: 23 April 2025