School of Social & Political Sciences

The election of Donald Trump, the legacies of Brexit and geopolitical frictions over the future of Ukraine raise deep questions about the UK's future relationship with the US

For decades, the UK and US have shared what has been famously called a "special relationship", built on deep diplomatic, military, and economic ties. However, in recent years, that relationship has been tested. Brexit, once championed as a move towards a more globally independent Britain, has instead complicated UK-US trade negotiation and weakened the UK's influence in Washington. The War in Ukraine has also stimulated friction, what was a homogenous approach has now become a point of divergence and friction between the US and Europe, undermining the UK-US alliance.

Labour's landslide victory in the 2024 UK General Election and Trump's re-election in the US have further exposed divisions in the so-called UK-US "special relationship". With Trump's ethos of moving fast and breaking things, there are now growing concerns about what could happen to the UK if this relationship continues to weaken. 

History of UK-US relations

The UK-US "Special Relationship" is a well-known, highly contested, concept, the post-WWII era being a defining moment in the two states' intertwined history with one another. Relations faltered slightly after the Cold War but the Bush-Blair partnership in the early 2000s unified the two states as a way of solidifying a strong Western response to 9/11. Their partnership has long been based on military closeness and the sharing of intelligence, as well as trade and ideological similiarities. When the UK was an EU member state, the US had the advantage of a pro-American voice through the UK which enhanced transatlantic cooperation and Western unity. In recent years, the US-UK relations have surpassed the heyday of unwavering dedication to one another, threatening not only decades-old friendship but Western unity in its entirety. 

Brexit 

The UK-US alliance has long been a pillar of global democracy. However, Brexit has introduced new challenges which could weaken relations in the long run, particularly under the strain of new leadership in both countries. With Brexit concluded in 2021, Labour has undertaken the role of fixing what they describe as Johnson's "botched Brexit deal" to restore faith in voters. According to YouGov, only 11% of voters think that Brexit was a success. 

However, Starmer's position on rebuilding ties with Europe could threaten its relationship with the US by creating further divergences between the UK and the Trump administration. Trump throughout his first administration and recent campaign, demonstrated that he favours bilateralism over multilateralism, constantly threatening to leave the WTO and impose tariffs on major trading partners such as Canada or EU. His callousness with trade and alliances threatens instability within UK-US relations such as the UK risks alienating itself from the US if it seeks closer ties with the EU. 

The Northern Ireland Protocol has presented another challenge. Since Brexit, the UK has aimed to engage in constructive free trade agreement discussions with the US however, discussions have continued to stall due to tensions over Northern Ireland. Starmer has said that he will continue to uphold the Northern Ireland Protocol however wishes to strike a better deal with the EU. Donald Trump's administration ultimately poses a significant risk to the region as Trump wishes to impose tariffs on the EU to which the EU has planned retaliatory tariffs. Under the Windsor Framework, Northern Ireland would be forced into imposing EU tariffs on US imports. This ultimately threatens stability in the region as Northern Ireland experienced significant issues throughout Brexit negotiations and due to Trump's tariffs risks being collateral damage in a trade war between the US and EU. 

Brexit granted the UK flexibility over tech regulations, allowing it to align with the US's 'laissez-faire' approach to stimulate international technology investment. However, incoming legislation is creating friction. CEOs of the Big Five technology companies warn that the UK's planned crackdown on online content accesibility could lead to major services pulling out of the country. The new law will impose fees on big tech firms, enforce age verification, and restrict content deemed harmful. Google has criticised the policy, stating: "The use of the worldwide revenue approach ... risks stifling UK growth, and consequently affecing the quality and variety of services offered to UK users, by potentially driving services with low UK revenue out of the UK, or stopping companies from launching service in the UK." Growing divisions over how to regulate tech and address the risks posed by social media could further isolate the UK, as its approach increasingly diverges from that of Trump's administration.

Challenges stemming from the fallout of Brexit will risk undermining the UK-US "Special Relationship". What has been highlighted above reinforces the complex, high stakes nature of the UK-US relationship and how easy it is for this alliance to be broken. The UK's post-Brexit strategy faces mounting challenges in maintaing stable relations with the US, particularly under Trump's return to power. While Labour seeks to repair Brexit's economic and diplomatic fallout by strengthening ties with the EU, this risks further divergence from Trump's unilateralist approach to trade and alliances. The Northern Ireland Protocol remains a significant sticking point, as Trump's tariff threats against the EU could create economic instability in the region. Additionally, growing regulatory differences in the tech sector, exacerbated by UK legislation on digital content, may further strain UK-US cooperation. 

Starmer has a long journey ahead of him if he wishes to remain both a strong, cooperative global player while also remaining the US's closest ally. 

The Ukraine War

The war in Ukraine has put UK-US relations under strain as both governments struggle to agree on a unified response to the invasion and peace negotiations. Under the Biden administration and Sunak government, the UK and US maintained a strong, coordinated stance - condemning Russia, supporting Ukraine, and providing weapons and significant military aid. The Labour government has continued this position, pledging £3 billion in annual military aid to Ukraine and insisting that Russia must relinquish all territory gained since February 2022. 

However, since Trump's return to the Oval Office, his stance has shifted. Initially, he took a similar position to the UK, threatening taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on Russian goods unless there was a 'STOP [to] this ridiculous War!'. But in a dramatic reversal, the US attended peace talks in Saudi Arabia alongside Russia - excluding Ukraine entirely. 

The UK and European leaders swiftly condemned Trump's action, arguing that any agreement without Ukraine's involvement would be unacceptable. In response, Keir Starmer attended an emergency meeting in Paris to discuss Europe's next steps. He also offered UK troops to Ukraine, calling on the US to do same, stating that a US security guarantee is essential for lasting peace, as only the US can deter Putin from further aggression. 

Significant challenges in peace negotiations come at a nervous point for the UK, as well as rest of the EU, as Trump has on multiple occasions threatened to pull out of NATO unless countries dedicate 2% GDP to defence. Without the backing of the US in a NATO wide coordination to maintain possible peace between the two states, it is at risk of being ineffective in deterring Russia. This could leave the UK in a precarious position - either forced to scale back its own commitments due to diminishing US support or risking tensions by urging Washington to remain engaged. Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, despite political differences, both support continued UK aid to Ukraine, but Starmer's ability to influence US policy is severely limited under a Trump presidency. Conflict over the handling and support for Ukraine demonstrates that the UK and US are at serious risk of fundamentally damaging their long term partnership. Trump's change in attitude towards Ukraine shows he is changeable and in some ways unreliable in what he says and when, the UK can't afford to give its unwavering support in case he changes his mind. Also his failure to involve Ukraine in its preliminary discussions demonstrates that he disregads Ukraine as a player in the talks but also that he disregards the position held by its closest ally, which is to give unwavering support to Ukraine so long as it needs it. The UK's turn to the EU in this instance is possibly a sign of what's to come when the two states disagree on matters, especially if Trump is threatening to pull out of NATO, it'll have no other choice than to turn to the EU in order to promote a strong Western deterrence against Russian aggression.

Looking to the future

The Trump administration poses serious risks to the 'Special Relationship' between the UK and US. The aftermath of Brexit will continue to dominate a significant area of UK foreign policy as the UK attempts to navigate new relations with the EU under a Labour Government which may come with resistance from Washington. Similarly, peace negotiations in Ukraine are so far pushing the UK and EU closer together to not only fight againt Russia but to fight against US's stronghold over defence and diplomacy. Overall, the 'Special Relationship' is at risk but it's up to both leaders to fight to maintain it. 

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This blog is part of the SPS Student Academic Blog series. You can read more contributions from the series here.

First published: 2 April 2025