Following the first general election held during the summer months since 1945, the UK’s leading psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice returned to the University of Glasgow to explain how people across the UK made their choice and the possible implications for the future of UK politics.

In this lecture one week before polling day, Prof Sir John Curtice explained the reasons that pollsters and election experts expected the Conservative party to face an electoral disaster at the UK general election on 4 July. Yet, his remarks also made it clear that many factors, including votes going to the smaller parties and the particular electoral geography in 2024, made it very difficult to predict how well Labour may – or may not – do on polling day. 

First published: 11 July 2024

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