Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Host-Parasite Dynamics, with Applications to Muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic

Alex Nascou (University of Glasgow)

Thursday 14th November 14:00-15:00 Maths 311B

Abstract

The impact of climate change on parasitic diseases is among the most pressing issues in the field of disease ecology. Parasites are a crucial component of biodiversity and play a significant role in food webs. Human, wildlife, and livestock populations are frequently burdened by infections of roundworms, tapeworms, trematodes and other large-bodied macroparasites, whose sub-lethal effects have negative implications for the health, quality-of-life, and economic potential of their hosts. While macroparasites often have complex lifecycles with multiple stages that are sensitive to ambient environmental temperatures, the impact of climate change on their dynamics has received little attention, particularly in wildlife systems. I will discuss recent work in which I leverage the Metabolic Theory of Ecology and a well-studied lungworm-muskoxen system in the Canadian Arctic to design temperature-dependent delay-differential equation models of host-macroparasite dynamics, parameterize them in the face of data scarcity, and assess model uncertainties using global sensitivity analyses. These models help to illuminate how climate change might influence parasite dynamics and act to shift their geographical distributions.

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