Dynamic emergence of metapopulation patterns in seabirds
Seabirds are important indicators of marine ecosystem health. A detailed understanding of seabird population dynamics is essential for their conservation and for decrypting early warning signals of changes in the marine environment.
Although seabird colonies are increasingly recognized as metapopulation networks, we lack an in-depth understanding of the dynamics that establish and maintain these networks.
This work will address these knowledge gaps via an innovative approach that dovetails population- and individual-level processes using the iconic northern gannet (Morus bassanus) as case study.
Firstly, we aim to apply advanced habitat modelling to identify suitable colony locations based on environmental variables.
Secondly, we will address colony dynamics at the population level by fitting a dynamic, state-space metapopulation model to a 100-year historical dataset of gannet colony censuses over their East Atlantic breeding range.
In tandem we will address breeding colony selection at the individual-level by equipping immature gannets with GPS tracking devices. Using the fully-fitted metapopulation model, I will then forecast the effects of scenarios of local and global (e.g. climate) environmental change.
These results will enhance our understanding of the long-term responses of important indicator species to anthropogenic environmental change and provide a broad scientific basis for the adaptive ecosystem management of seabirds.
Funding
Jana Jeglinski & Jason Matthiopoulos. Dynamic emergence of metapopulation patterns in Northern gannets: linking prospecting movements of immatures with metapopulation modelling. 2014 - 2016. Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (German Academic Exchange Service Fellowship). £49,071.
MASTS Cutting edge techniques/research Small Grant , 'Tracking prospecting movements of Northern gannets: linking individual behaviour to metapopulation dynamics'. £3,000
Collaborators
Sarah Wanless, CEH Edinburgh, UK
David Grémillet, CEFE CNRS, Montpellier, France
Steve Votier, University of Exeter, UK
Stefan Garthe, University of Kiel & FTZ, Germany
Martin Wikelski, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Radolfzell, Germany
Find out more
A research blog post by Jana Jeglinski blog describing her work in this area: Texting teenage gannets