Research units A-Z

Dynamic Systems Model

This model enables us to predict the economic and health outcomes of potential policy choices.

At SIPHER, we wish to empower evidence-based policy decision-making towards creating an inclusive economy at national, regional, and local levels.

Given the complex interactions and influences of economic factors on our health outcomes, only by constructing a comprehensive, system-wide dynamic model can we support informed decision-making.

Using a causal systems map developed by experts, in conjunction with annual data on key indicators, we have built a dynamic systems model.

Integrated with our SIPHER Decision Support Tool, this Dynamic Systems Model equips policymakers with valuable insights.

The Dynamic Systems Model enables users to: 

• Forecast Future Outcomes: By understanding the outcomes of all indicators over a time period,  such as the next ten years, we can analysing the impact of policy interventions.
• Identify Effective Strategies: Pinpointing the economic indicators that are most instrumental in improving a selected health or economic measure.
• Assess Uncertainty: We quantify the uncertainty inherent in our model predictions, offering policymakers a better understanding of different policy scenarios.