Research units A-Z

Dynamic Systems Model

At SIPHER, we wish to empower evidence-based policy decision-making towards creating an inclusive economy at national, regional, and local levels.

Given the complex interactions and influences of economic factors on our health outcomes, only by constructing a comprehensive, system-wide dynamic model can we supporting informed decision-making.

Using a causal systems map developed by experts, in conjunction with annual data on key indicators, we have built a dynamic systems model.

This model enables us to predict the economic and health outcomes of potential policy choices.

Integrated with our SIPHER Decision Support Tool, this Dynamic Systems Model equips policymakers with valuable insights.

The Dynamic Systems Model enables users to: 

• Forecast Future Outcomes: By understanding the outcomes of all indicators over a time period,  such as the next ten years, we can analysing the impact of policy interventions.
• Identify Effective Strategies: Pinpointing the economic indicators that are most instrumental in improving a selected health or economic measure.
• Assess Uncertainty: We quantify the uncertainty inherent in our model predictions, offering policymakers a better understanding of different policy scenarios.