Dynamic Systems Model

At SIPHER, we wish to empower evidence-based policy decision-making towards creating an inclusive economy at national, regional, and local levels.

Given the complex interactions and influences of economic factors on our health outcomes, only by constructing a comprehensive, system-wide dynamic model can we supporting informed decision-making.

Using a causal systems map developed by experts, in conjunction with annual data on key indicators, we have built a dynamic systems model.

This model enables us to predict the economic and health outcomes of potential policy choices.

Integrated with our SIPHER Decision Support Tool, this Dynamic Systems Model equips policymakers with valuable insights.

The Dynamic Systems Model enables users to: 

  • Forecast Future Outcomes: By understanding the outcomes of all indicators over a time period,  such as the next ten years, we can analysing the impact of policy interventions.
  • Identify Effective Strategies: Pinpointing the economic indicators that are most instrumental in improving a selected health or economic measure.
  • Assess Uncertainty: We quantify the uncertainty inherent in our model predictions, offering policymakers a better understanding of different policy scenarios.

 

Related Resources

  • Product Guide -Dynamic Systems Model   Provides technical details including the strengths and limitations of this model along with the option to directly compare this model with other SIPHER products

News

  • In March 2024 we held a meeting with our policy partner Scottish Government to share our latest research on decision support modelling for health and economic impacts.

  • Showcasing Dynamic Systems Modelling of the Inclusive Economy & Health Outcomes at the Prevention Research 2023! UKPRP's Community of Practice Conference,  Edinburgh in November 2023.

David Veres, Rsesearcher Causal Systems Dynamics Modelling (Workstand 4) presented "Evidence Based System Maps Representations of Health Inequalities Among Local Authorities - a Data Driven Approach" Abstract  - Read at Community of Practice Conference handbook - Pg 60. 

Ping Li Research Associate on Causal Systems Dynamics Modelling (Workstand 4) presented "State Space Dynamic Systems Modelling of the Inclusive Economy and Health Outcomes" Poster