Livestock movements and the risk of pathogen spillover events
Supervisors:
Sam Moore, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University
Gemma Chaters, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University
Paul Johnson, School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Summary:
The most significant global pandemics, including Spanish influenza, the Bubonic plague, and most recently COVID-19 and Mpox, resulted from the spillover of pathogens between animals and humans. The risk of pathogen spillover is exacerbated in areas where people have close contact with animals (wild or domesticated) and in areas of intensive farming, where large dense populations allow for extensive pathogen propagation, and livestock movements give rise to pathogen introduction, spread, and evolution.
To mitigate against the threat of spillover events that result in pandemic disease, it is essential that we understand: where will spillover events occur? And, once an outbreak has started, where will it spread and how quickly?
This project will aim to create a global risk map for pandemic disease emergence and subsequent spread; to take into account livestock density and movement, farming practices, and global human travel networks.. High risk locations will be: (i) those where livestock are kept at high density, and or where humans are in frequent contact, providing opportunity for spillover events; (ii) locations that are highly connected via frequent livestock movements, giving rise to increased pathogen diversity; and (iii) locations central to the human travel network, where novel pathogens could quickly become a global concern.
This project will suit someone with a biological or mathematical background who is motivated to develop and apply their skills in tackling a major threat to global health. Experience in epidemiological modelling and communicating scientific ideas to inform policy would also be advantageous.