The burden of heart failure will continue to increase substantially over the next 20 years, concludes a study published in Heart conducted by Professor John McMurray, CRI in Heart Failure, University of Glasgow.

Using epidemiological data to calculate the future burden of heart failure in Scotland over the period 2000 to 2020, Professor McMurray and colleagues based their projections on expected changes in the age structure of the Scottish population.

There are currently estimated to be 40,000 men and 45,000 women aged 45 years or over with heart failure in Scotland. On the basis of population changes alone, it is calculated that these figures will rise by 2,300 (6%) in men and 1,500 (3%) in women by the year 2005, and by 12,300 (31%) in men and 7,800 (17%) in women by 2020.

On the same basis, the annual number of GP visits is likely to rise by 6,400 (6%) in men and 2,500 (2%) in women by 2005, and by 35,200 (40%) in men and 17,300 (16%) in women in the longer term.

By 2020, annual hospital admissions for heart failure are expected to increase by 34% (from 5,500 to 7,500) in men and 12% (from 7,800 to 8,500) in women.

Professor McMurray commented, 'Despite some inevitable study limitations, these results suggest that the burden of heart failure will continue to increase substantially over the next two decades, with the greatest increase likely to occur in men.'

He concludes, 'Future health service planning must take this into account. Other developed countries, including most European nations and the USA, can expect similar changes in their populations.'

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Professor John McMurray, CRI in Heart Failure, Wolfson Building,

University of Glasgow, Scotland

Tel: 0141 211 1838

Email: J.McMurray@bio.gla.ac.uk

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First published: 17 December 2002