As the UK inflation rate passes 10%, this research clarifies the link between higher prices and crime.

"Apart from poverty and inequality, unfortunately higher prices can all also boost crime."

Work by , Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Adam Smith Business School, shows that higher crime levels are an extra cost of inflation, beyond its impact on poverty and inequality.

Using data from New Scotland Yard on different types of stolen goods, he and his colleagues,  matched them with prices, and found that a 10% increase in the cost of the product increased the stolen quantity for the product by about 3-4%, with potential impact for retailers and property owners.

Policymakers are being urged to intervene to regulate the cost of living crisis, control inflationary expectations, and tax millionaire wealth and excess profits from energy to support the most vulnerable during the crisis.

This research also shows that they should observe prices to anticipate and help prevent future rises in crime levels. This work shows that prices are a better explaination for criminal actions than factors of unemployment and wages.

Dr Koutmeridis explains more about the research in this video.

Read the article

Available on the Enlighten website: The Changing Returns to Crime: Do Criminals Respond to Prices? by Theodore Koutmeridis, Mirko Draca, and Stephen Machin.

Originally published by The Review of Economic Studies in 2018.

 

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First published: 9 August 2022

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