In a paper published a paper in the Journal of Rural Studies, Professor Graeme Roy, Professor in Economics, wrote about the COVID-19 pandemic in the West Highlands of Scotland.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented decline in activity across all sectors of our economy. But it had a particularly pronounced impact upon many rural communities, particularly those dependent upon tourism for their livelihoods.

In new research, academics at Glasgow and Strathclyde have studied how businesses and communities in the rural west of Scotland coped with the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns.

Significant hit to economic activity

The lockdowns brought in to help protect public health during the height of the pandemic led to a sharp decline in economic activity, not just in Scotland but around the world.

Here in Scotland, Gross Domestic Product – a measure of the total amount produced in the economy at a given point in time – fell by around 20% at the height of the 2020 spring lockdown.

Figure 1: UK and Scottish GDP, monthly, (Feb 2020 = 100)

 

 

Source: Scottish Government and Office for National Statistics (ONS)

But the impact of the lockdown – both in terms of its immediate restrictions and longevity – was not shared equally across different parts of our economy, or indeed individuals.  

In general, rural economies are known to be less resilient than more urban areas due to their lack of scale which makes them more vulnerable to economic shocks. The loss of just one business or key supplier, for example can have knock-on effects across many sectors in that region and can extend for a prolonged period.

But the COVID-19 pandemic added an additional dimension. In addition to the usual concerns over rural economic resilience that could be expected in any 'normal' recession, the closing of hospitality and tourism businesses, exposed rural communities to an additional risk. In rural Scotland, the "Accommodation and Food Services" sector – which broadly captures restaurants, hotels and B&Bs – makes up around 15% of total employment, almost double the percentage in the rest of the country (Scottish Government, 2021).

But in 2020, the international tourism economy contracted by 80% (OECD, 2020). In Scotland "Accommodation and Food Services" saw a decline in activity of 83% from pre-pandemic levels by April 2020.

So how did rural communities cope?

The existing academic literature presents different frameworks to understand the components of rural resilience. In our study, we focussed upon a framework centred upon economic, social and environmental resilience.

The research found that rural businesses played a key role in helping to support communities through the crisis by boosting social resilience. This included providing targeted initiatives to help vulnerable groups (such as food and medicine deliveries) through to initiatives to maintain a sense of community during a challenging time. A rich and diverse business base is shown to be crucial to supporting rural resilience through crises.

Equally, community attitudes and confidence in the business community was found to have a significant impact upon the resilience of the businesses themselves – such that social resilience was found to be good for economic resilience. But there were also tensions. This reached its height during debates over when, and how, to ease restrictions enabling visitors to return. Atkey points, the demands of business often rubbed up against fears and concerns within communities.

The study shows that key to resolving these tensions is effective local leadership, and local empowerment to develop policy solutions that work best for each community.

Read the paper in Journal of Rural Studies on the Science Direct webpage

 

First published: 25 September 2023

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